The Bitcoin (BTC) price saw big swings on Friday, with droves of traders on both the bullish and bearish side getting their positions wiped out as US spot Bitcoin ETF buyers continue to battle against profit-taking sellers.
BTC begun Friday’s session above $71,000 before selling off sharply during Asia trade.
Having dropped as low as the $65,500s, the Bitcoin price abruptly rallied back to $70,500 during US trade.
It was last trading around $68,000, with leveraged futures positions worth $200 million having been wiped out, as per coinglass.com.
That marked the most punishing day for the bulls since the 4th of March. On that day, long positions worth $244 million were taken out.
Since printing fresh record highs near $74,000 on Thursday, Bitcoin has lost bullish momentum.
Profit-takers appear to have taken control of the market, despite still elevated demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Profits At Absurd Levels, On-Chain Analysis Reveals
As per CryptoCon, a 30-day moving average of a widely followed on-chain metric called the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is at “absurd” levels.
When #Bitcoin profits get high, investors get ancy to sell. ETF inflows don’t change that.
The data shows us that we are at absurd levels of profit, the highest since 2013 on the 30-day MA profit/loss ratio.
The first cross of the 23 value line hasn’t represented the top in the… pic.twitter.com/2hjY1FIDwN
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) March 15, 2024
CryptoCon was keen to point out that this doesn’t mean the market is necessarily close to toping.
But it does suggest that investors sitting on big profits are likely getting “antsy to sell”.
At current levels around $68,000, the Bitcoin price is up over 60% since the beginning of the year.
Massive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been the main driver of the rally. And they have been accelerating recently.
As per a JP Morgan research note, weekly inflows were the largest this week since their January launch.
❖ Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows the largest since launch: JPMorgan
In a note covering cryptocurrency markets, JPMorgan said that Bitcoin ETF inflows were at their largest since the launch this week.
The investment bank estimates preliminary net sales of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs of…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 15, 2024
It’s no surprise then that, despite profit-taking and a 7.5% pullback from highs, many remain confident the Bitcoin outlook remains bullish.
That’s despite the cryptocurrency hitting a new all-time prior to its four-yearly halving, rather than after.
For the first time in history bitcoin has hit an all time high before the halving
we are seeing a demand shock from the etfs and next month we will have a supply shock 🚀 pic.twitter.com/VlSiLK0LTY
— Crypto Tea (@CryptoTea_) March 11, 2024
Where Next for the Bitcoin Price?
In past Bitcoin bull markets, it’s not been uncommon for the price to reverse 30% lower from a local high.
As recently as January, Bitcoin dipped from at the time yearly high around $49,000 to as low as $38,500.
That suggests that Bitcoin’s latest pullback potentially has legs. A retest of $50,000 isn’t out of the question, based on historical comparison.
But ETFs may have changed the game.
Major institutional investors entering the Bitcoin market for the first time, with the knowledge of its volatility but also potential upside, are likely to be less price sensitive than past cohorts of Bitcoin investors.
They are also likely to have a “buy-the-dip” mentality that may help to cushion BTC price declines.
Any BTC price dips now may struggle to extend beyond 10-15%.
That suggests $60,000 could be a near-term price floor.
The Bitcoin Price could dip to the low $60,000s, but could then fly higher towards $100,000. Source: TradingView
$74,000 could easily be the pre-halving high. But that could set the stage for a breakout to fresh record levels later in the year and a challenge of $100,000.